May 2, 1997
The Chase for Maris is On
One month of the baseball season is in the books. There are always players who get off to hot starts, and fans start speculating on how their stats would project over a full season. The problem with that of course is that no player can continue such a pace. And because we've only played one-sixth of the season, the numbers can fluctuate so much from day-to-day. It's generally not a good idea to start taking them too seriously until at-least mid-June.
But with the offensive explosion we've witnessed in the last few years, its hard not to speculate that this will be the year that the most noteworthy single-season record will be broken, Roger Maris's mark of 61 homeruns.
Its no small feat to hit even fifty homeruns. Only 14 men have done it, including Albert Belle in 1995 and Brady Anderson and Mark McGwire In 1996. In 1997, there is every reason to believe that two serious candidates for sixty homers have been established.
McGwire led the league with 52 HR last year, despite missing 32 games because of injuries. He was hitting homers at a pace of one every 8.13 at-bats, one of the best frequencies ever. Add his 52 in 130 games last year to the 11 in 26 games this year and you get 63 homers in the equivalent of just less than a full-season.
McGwire is no stranger to the "Maris Chase". He had thirty at the midway point of his rookie season, and was on the pace into mid-August last year. But injuries have historically been a problem for McGwire, who turns 34 in October. If he can manage to stay healthy, we should expect him to mount a serious challenge to the record this fall.
The other candidate to watch is Seattle's charismatic Ken Griffey, Jr.. Like McGwire, Griffey was injured for part of last season and missed 20 games. But if you add his 49 HR in 140 games last year to his 13 in his first 22 games this year, you get another record breaker. Griffey has been in the league since 1989, but he is only twenty-seven. That's the age at which most baseball scholars think players have their best seasons.
Griffey has several other advantages. He's already a household name, which means he knows how to deal with the constant, unrelenting pressures that would come with an approach of Maris' record. He plays in Seattle, which isn't by any means a small-town, but is far enough away from Los Angeles and New York to somewhat dampen the potential media-circus.
Perhaps most importantly, Griffey is surrounded by a talented team, with stars like Alex Rodriguez, Jay Buhner, and Edgar Martinez. Not only can they defelect some of the pressure from Griffey, but their presence makes it more difficult for opposing teams to pitch around him.
It's too early for predictions, but McGwire and Griffey will certainly make this an exciting season.
|
Total Baseball Online
Online version of the definitve baseball reference book. Interactive search for player statistics, essays on virtually every concievable topic, plus much more. This is the one place where all of the premier baseball researchers are brought together.
ESPNET SportsZone:MLB
This is the best site for current baseball information. They provide broad coverage of all major & minor league teams, as well as college and amateur baseball. ESPN draws on its wealth of analysts to provide a depth of coverage unmatched elsewhere.
John Skilton's Baseball Links
This is the most comprehensive list of baseball links on the web. As John says, "if you can't find it here, it probably doesn't exist".
Instant Baseball
Instant baseball provides live, play-by-play results for Major League games in progress. Subscribers can see animated recreations via a Java applet. Great way to follow the games that aren't on TV.
The Baseball Prospectus
Perhaps the most insightful analysis and commentary available anywhere. Detailed reports on individual players, teams, and baseball as a whole. Online companion to the popular and indispensible book.
|
Baseball
